I don’t have very much topical or important to post as of this morning today, so how about a couple of clips of small woodpecker(s)?
(For those who are interested, here is a link to a selection of topical verses but for TLDR, Pentecost commemorates the event when the Church got upleveled.)
However, a few days earlier (May 22nd), I was walking around looking for pretty plants to photograph, when I heard a racket from the trees, sounded like multiple small birds. I searched for a while and discovered the source of the sound – holes high up in the tree where a small woodpecker was fussing about. A nest of woodpecker chicks plus a parent. Somewhere further away a woodpecker was drumming, as noted by a passerby while I was trying to video.
After some cutting and editing last night, here are the highlights:
This video is silent, commentary removed.
And here is some birdsong. And drumming.
Other than that, I have been selecting and editing photos for POD and tinkering with my writing.
I wonder if I should some day post some of my fiction in this blog? On one hand I am tempted, on the other hand, I am still shy. It took me a long time to start even a blog.
Aside from the discussion about immigration and emigration, there is a question why don’t people have babies. The capitalist explanation is poverty – poor people cannot afford babies, so they do not have them. I don’t think this is a whole explanation, since most people throughout human history have been poor and the struggle to feed children was no doubt an issue to prehistoric people, even to other human species. Even today birthrates are high in poor countries, to the moral condemnation of Western experts who blame the natives not planning properly. I think they are planning quite appropriately, local realities considering.
Many flowers, Berkeley, CA, 2026, March 29th.
Therefore, I think there is something inherently antinatalist in modern Western socioeconomic models, which have been spread by the power of gun and international banking to all inhabited lands of the Earth. Except North Sentinel Island and possibly many of the uncontacted tribes in Amazon rain forest. Below is my partial list of possible reducers of birth rates, with the caveat that not all of them may act in the same context and some may be wrong.
1) Long education
Many modern jobs require complex education, which is given as an excuse for long education, but in reality most relevant skills for an average modern job can be taught in much shorter time.
Worse, modern education is not. The rot of education is especially prevalent in USA, where high school graduates may require remedial reading and math classes in universities where they were accepted despite educational deficit, but also Finns are moaning about the collapse of vocational education. Schools have become warehouses for children and youth, who are led to believe that if they do not complete and comply they will not receive jobs. Which, thanks to persistent and structural under/unemployment do not exist in any case, unless the young one has connections and/or money.
The longer the young person spends in the education system, the later comes the family formation or extramarital offspring. By warehousing young people, while telling them that without this process they will not have future or prospects, governments around the world are killing birth rates.
Long education mimics K-selection, but since the education system does not deliver, it actually has become a tool for sabotaging the masses in competition for resources – elites can afford actual schools or home tutors, such as necessary, after all, their income is not dependent on good grades or compliance with The System. I recently heard a brief blurb about California having 7x the expected loss of school enrolled children this year, both public and private schools and even home schooling registrations had gone down. The news put this on current immigration policies which had driven the undocumented migrants to pull their children out of schools or packing their family and leaving the country. Methinks there are additionally quite a few Californians with children who moved out of the state. But I also suspect that some of the missing children have been pulled out because their parents do not believe the current school system to be good for their children despite not being able to afford anything better. And then there are the consequences of years of declining birth rates, i.e., fewer potential students.
2) Female employment
Warehousing of young people is especially poison to female reproduction, which is further curtailed by economic realities. To survive in modern society, most young women need to enter workforce. Many do it voluntarily, because they have been taught that women’s work is not proper work but they should aspire to be like men. Do men’s work, have a career. This suits well to many women, but others do it because of grim necessity. Speaking from experience, studying hard and working harder are too exhausting to consider dating. Without dating, there won’t be children. And so women’s fertility rates in rat race societies are collapsing. Even those women who find their soul mates often need to defer pregnancies, because the minimum wages or less the couple brings home are barely enough for roof, heating and eating. And the employment for either sex in these days is increasingly ephemeral.
Again, 40% of the jobs in the private sector (in public sector probably more) are bullsh!t jobs, that I suspect exist because The System needs to warehouse consumers. Private companies usually don’t hire people just for the sake of employing people, there tends to be financial logic behind private sector bullsh!t jobs – often it is the government regulatory apparatus rewarding those who do and punishing those who don’t hire to fill bullsh!t positions dictated by government edicts or bribes, or an activist wealth fund providing cheap loans based on ESG score, or something analogous. Governments, of course, are incentivized both to reduce unemployment numbers, e.g., by legislating a need to compost and then hiring compost inspectors to ensure that people compost according to regulations, or to hire friends and relatives of the politically connected or party comrades for well-paid low impact or no-show jobs. Lots of those pointlessly employed on public and private sectors alike are women, both because women need the money, and because there is an ideological push to get as many women into workforce as possible. Again, governments like the idea, because it nearly doubles the current tax take. That the tax take 20 years down the line might be endangered as the working women today do not have time for children is a secondary issue. And in any case, workers are interchangeable, they can be imported from other continents as needed, right?
Off topic, it has been interesting to see how IT and related industries have been shedding thousands and tens of thousands jobs past year, blaming it on AI and post-covid overstaffing. Obviously the layoffs have nothing to do with rumored roll-back of government (and private sector) pressure to meet the ESG metrics? Or maybe it just is a sign of The System meeting the limits imposed by economic realities – the reality being that the economy never properly recovered the 2007 crash, and then COVID lockdowns combined with The Green New Leap had shaved so much of the economic output that the system is teetering at the edge of collapse. Facing weakening consumer spending and rising input costs, corporations now must trim extraneous spending or face bankruptcy proceedings. Maybe, if the government removed its finger from workforce manipulation, an organic balance better suited to the needs and wants of the people (regardless of their gender) would emerge.
3) Urbanization and resource allocation
My mother used to say (roughly translated): “What is poverty in countryside, is destitution in city.” She meant that even with subminimal income, rural people had access to more resources like garden plots for vegetables, nearby lakes for fishing and forests for firewood, berries and meat. Small crofters might keep a cow or two and a pig for a summer and a flock of chicken. None of this is possible in a fourth floor concrete cube of a commieblock planted between inner ringroads between factories and office buildings. Thus, an income that would be survivable in countryside would be death by starvation in a concrete jungle. Unless social services intervened, or the urban pauper was healthy enough to participate in black economy. In other words, raising children in rural parts is more affordable than in city. Unless social services can be harnessed to help with the costs.
Additionally, rural living is more spacious allowing room for children – a room in a shared apartment (analogous to Soviet Union kommunalkas) or a studio apartment in a social housing project will not be nearly as nice place to raise a baby as even one room croft.
Cities tend to have lower birth rates than countryside. Cities have also had higher morbidities (before modern living standards and hospital systems) being polluted plague pits where food was both suspicious and expensive. Why did people then flock into cities? They were driven off their lands. In British Isles, the industrialization coincided with enclosure of the commons, the bigwigs privatized the lands, and the peasants had to migrate to big cities or overseas. In modern Africa, wars are a big driver for urbanization when villagers flee armed factions into slums where they will not be killed for being wrong tribe, religion or having something the looters need. In modern Western countries, rural youth do not need to worry about marauding warlords, but The System itself is making rural survival increasingly precarious by regulating or outlawing nearly any economic or survival activity into de facto extinction. And this is in purpose, the elites want masses as resource-constrained as possible, all in the name of protecting the planet. The reduction of birth rates, over which they then shed crocodile tears, is just an extra bonus – every mouth not born is one fewer ‘useless eater’.
4) Pension system
The majority of the people in Western countries labor according to the rules that dictate they need a job (self-employment is a possibility, but increasingly difficult to achieve, not the least because of modern equivalent of enclosure, namely of intellectual property, and of myriad regulations to commercial activities strangling young businesses before their birth) to pay taxes to contribute to public welfare, healthcare, law enforcement, defense, education, roads, and pension system. In exchange, The System allows the people to keep part of the fruits of their labor (which is taxed heavier than passive income) and provides law enforcement to protect it from other people. Based on the state of our roads, education system, defense and healthcare, and thriving people vs people crime, I have suspicion that the pension system is also a scam. It is definitely structured like a Ponzi scheme, where the later investors pay the expenses of the earlier investors and which presupposes ever expanding economy with more and more payers in each generation. Then there is the persistent inflation eating the value of the savings and periodic market corrections to loot the 401Ks.
Which will be tragic for Gen X and Millenials (I doubt Zoomers or Alphas will even dream about pension.) One of the reasons for children in older days was that there was no public pension system, you had to raise your old age support yourself and hope that your offspring survived, succeeded and was grateful or dutiful enough to take care of you in your dotage. Gen X and Millenials did not have this added incentive, after all The System would provide a pension, so children were optional fun, not an essential. Besides, the modern economic realities have made children a luxury item for the middle and working classes (actually the lower middle classes, or professional belong to working classes because both work for living.) Upper classes are not constrained by opportunity costs of raising children instead of working and for non-working classes having children may increase the family net income. Except The System is now broke, and childless Gen X’ers and Millenials better hope that there will at least a robot nurse allocated for their dotage.
5) Rules based society
How are the above absurdities possible? None of the above would work, if people were not trained to believe in The System. In the school civics lessons we were told that we live in the best available system and that if we obey the rules and work hard The System will reward us. This is a Load Bearing Lie of our current capitalist system. It was the Load Bearing Lie of the communist system. As soon as people stop believing The System rewarding them for good behaviour, or worse, being able to survive despite obedience to the rules, people begin to ignore the rules instead of merely twisting them for their own advantage.
The much reviled welfare queens who realized babies could be used for extracting resources from social services were an early version of this phenomenon. Social services providing for welfare of the babies and their mothers was originally meant as an insurance for catastrophal failure in family circumstances, but in modern times replacing work income with social subsidies is a valid career strategy, as exemplified by one 2024 calculation where in Finland nine babies to a single mother provide as much after tax income as 11 392 EUR per month job. Combined with “Learing Center”-scams with other neighborhood baby mamas, it is possible to earn quite a comfortable income by not having a career or an alimony. Ironically, the very existence of welfare queens proves that women in workforce are being scammed by the idea of rules based society.
Rules based society also allows making rules that deprive masses of their survival resources and herds them into big cities with even fewer resources. The rules are enforced not only by the state violence machinery (police, commissars, gendarmerie, judges, bailiffs, tax inspectors, etc.) but by financial punishments and rewards, such as social services, business permits or fines and tax incentives.
The media constantly repeats that young people move into cities because that’s where the opportunities are. What is conveniently left out of this statement are the aggregate decisions depriving the rural opportunities by increasingly centralized governments. And the opportunities do exist in the cities, even though the price may literally be your firstborn child (and all the other children that might follow.) Many people succeed in having both urban career and children, despite everything stacked against them, through luck or skill or combination of both, but The System is designed to reduce the resources of the masses to prevent uprisings against the elites and their digital dictatorship, so also the fraction of people with luxury items like children decreases.
There is an ideology that believes that rational governance requires central control, the bigger the better. We saw what happened to Soviet Union. We are seeing what is happening to EU and USA as the grips of Brussels and Washington DC tighten. The centralization of control is only possible within rules based systems. The more the people obey, the tighter rules, and the larger The System can grow. Except for the complexity collapse. As the number of rules increases, internal contradictions and wasted resources multiply creating a drag in performance. Which is what killed people’s faith in Soviet System.
Unfortunately, wasted resources in terms of The System mean people with lives and their hopes. Also the opportunity cost for societal improvement – nothing improves under sclerotic bureaucracy that, despite failing, labors mightily to prevent people from having alternatives. Locked into ever-shrinking space within this cage of rules, obedient people are the ones suffering the most. They are hence the least likely to have children, leaving reproduction to those who either ignore the rules or only use them when it is advantageous to them.
Ironically, this is a deathblow to a high trust society: whether the antiorganizational trait relies on genetic or memetic inheritance, the result will be future generations growing less obedient to rules and consequent erosion of rules based society regardless of its performance otherwise. In other words, thanks to the reduced ability to make children within a current rules based society, the conformists have a very strong selective disadvantage – future generations will be born to the more feral parents, and growing up feral themselves will not maintain the rules based society.
6) Antinatalist fanaticism
Today’s left is decidedly antinatalists. In certain circles, children are not wanted because they pollute and consume resources. They are an economic drag and hinder hedonism. Today’s right is more likely to want children both because of religious reasons and because moving in conservative circles they encounter children more often and baby fever is socially contagious. Thus, there is a birth rate gap between the progressives and the traditionalists.
7) Evolutionary consequences
In the end, future belongs to those who arrive there, Western (or Asian) rules based societies are an evolutionary dead end. Whether the tendency for obedience that is the basis of Rules-Based Society is memetic or genetic is irrelevant, thanks to Freeloaders Paradox. The linked paper only models genetic freeloading, but shows that freeloaders and their groups exist in oscillating equilibrium – when freeloaders are few, the group as a whole is efficient and benefit per freeloader is high, when freeloaders are many, the group becomes so inefficient that there is no benefit to freeloading. I think communism shows that memetic crash of altruistic tendencies under state mandated freeloader burden collapses a group faster than genetics (which is good for humans suffering under it), but the oscillations will guarantee a bumpy ride, or interesting times, as the Chinese put it.
Meanwhile, in long term, societies and systems can grow only as much as the “natural” freeloading tendencies of the people within the system allows. Mass-migration provides an interesting social experiment, wherein Western countries imported en masse freeloaders from other countries. There are also millions of productive people migrating around the world, but the productive people tend to emigrate into those countries where their efforts benefit themselves the most, whereas freeloaders tend to migrate into those countries where they most benefit from the efforts of the others. Conspiratorially minded might come to conclusion that the Western elites know this and are purposefully collapsing the Western welfare society, but many Western countries are losing their wealthiest (i.e., the most resource-rich) as well as the young educated professionals to countries where these individuals can maximize their personaI welfare (another type of freeloader, according to the socialists – which by the way would be a valid POV if humans were eusocial like termites or certain Hymenopterans). Therefore, I think the collapse of social security, pensions and healthcare systems are just an aspect of the total societal collapse, after which the more competitive societies with less freeloader acceptance (outgroup or ingroup) will take the lead of global cultural evolution. TLDR; groups with high freeloader burden are in competitive disadvantage to groups with low freeloader burden, and the latter will outcompete the former, leading to lower systemic freeloader burden overall.
P.S. Apologies for not putting many links towards the end of the posting, many of the interesting or informative links are unfortunately behind a copyright enclosure, and searching for suitable links takes more time than writing.
More flowers. We are many, but only because the conditions allow it.
Despite lots of No Kings-signs, monarch butterflies continue to flit around Berkeley, CA. This one was filmed perching on a flowering tree on April 15th, 2026.
Another, smaller insect makes an appearance at about 9 seconds into the video.
The wisteria season is going out. This post was meant to be out earlier, but my internet started acting up so finishing it got delayed. In any case, redbuds are done, but new flowers are showing up. There were within nearby blocks weird, fluffy white flowered, presumably fruit trees that I have loved to observe for a couple of years already but this year I have been busy and missed the start of their blooming.
The spring was very warm and quick, and it feels like a summer here, though some plants did not get the memo and are still without leaves or flowers. Also, I partially missed spring posting because of internet issues – for some unknown reason my home internet again allowed me to blog dashboard again yesterday. The Liquidambar are full of new leaves and many have new small ‘spiky balls’ growing, light green like the new leaves. The balls began to grow despite many trees had many of their last year’s dark and hardened ‘spiky balls’ hanging, too. Some Liquidambar even had last year’s leaves left among the new growth. Confused about seasons or insufficient winter storms?
Insects had been active, and birds were still singing when I began to draft this post (now the chorus has quieted, presumably they are busy with chicks.) Multiple species of butterflies, not just the wintering monarchs, were flitting around and in flowers. As a testimony of warm weather, I even saw a skipper butterfly, though I do not have photographic evidence – the little beast was too fast.
That was on my walk to a shop and back to get 10lb elbow macaroni. I bought cans of corned beef last weekend and failed to buy canned sprats. By my estimates (based on empirical experience on how many times I can eat the same meal before I lose appetite), I can eat max 1-2lb macaroni boiled with a couple of cans of meat a week (preferably less often than more) thus cutting my grocery bills, should the food situation worsen, either through supply shock (geopolitics), through reduced income (read unemployment) or through inflation (economic collapse.) Adding fresh greens and fruits to stored food to balance the diet should stretch the supplies meant to be a buffer for temporary shocks. There should be at least lemons in Berkeley, CA, barring the most exceptional circumstances. I got 10 more macaroni on my next shopping trip, also keeping my eyes peeled for cheap sprats (protein + fatty acids) and more corned beef or other non-perishable meat products (protein). If the situation lasts over three months, I’ll be in trouble. But then, so will be everyone else.
For the people who are surprised at 3 month preps, rather than a homestead with doomsday bunker, most of the SHTF events are either short term (storms, blips in supply system, specialized economical events) or personal (accidents, injuries, corporate lay-offs) so it makes sense to invest some resources on stuff that might realistically happen to anyone that to invest a lot in case an extremely long tail event like a total thermonuclear war happens.
Remembering the collapse of the Soviet Union, a definite SHTF event for the Soviets, the society remained largely intact, bureaucracies existed, and economy muddled on, as did the regular people. I am expecting similar circumstances in United States, the Obama years reminded me of Brezhnev Era, Biden years of the Andropov/Chernenko years at the twilight of the Soviet Union. I expected Trump to be the Gorbachev of the United States, overseeing the economic collapse and centrifugal tendencies of increasingly assertive states overriding the Federal legislation and enforcement, but apparently our trajectory of failure will resemble more the end of the British Empire, that died by Suez Canal. Meanwhile, canned fish is getting expensive.
But the wisterias were pretty this spring, and I’m happy that I got some pictures.
Wisterias from 2026, March 21. Better late than never.
Typing in a coffee shop but wanting to show signs of life. Nevertheless, need to keep it brief, I’m just commenting briefly some news. And going off tangent on AI. With some pretty visuals.
A fluffy white (and green and gray) tree, 2026 April 3rd, Berkeley, CA
Around the Moon – on any other year (well most other years) the Artemis II flight would have been the main news. The space race in 1960s and -70s especially. I am glad it happened successfully and hope that the space exploration continues
Meanwhile, on Earth, it looks like we are at the peak easy energy, with the activity in and around the Strait of Hormuz being both the symptom and the trigger of anticipated economic crash. I think the left, especially “environmentalists” are silently happy about the starting restrictions on energy usage (as long as it does not apply on their needs,) Prepare accordingly. The shortages are not only about gasoline and diesel, it is transportation in general (dependent on fuels), agriculture (dependent on fuels, fertilizers and pesticides made of hydrocarbons), plastics (made of hydrocarbons) including consumer stuff like soda bottles and cereal bags.
As the economy gets tighter for those in the bottom rungs of the consumer economy, people are cracking. The social contract has become increasingly lopsided, with compliance only expected from the lower levels of food chain. Then I learned that someone had been tossing Molotov’s cocktails on Sam Altman’s residence in San Francisco. Already before that, a disgruntled third party warehouse worker burned down Kimberly-Clark warehouse in LA region, muttering something about living wage. In Berkeley, CA, a naked man with shotgun visited a Tesla service center, got arrested (nobody got shot, but based evidence in his warehouse, he is also accused of reckless discharge of weapon.) Meanwhile, Stanford Review denies that the reason why recent Stanford computer science graduates cannot find jobs is AI, blaming the economy instead. Economy is a genuine factor, and CEOs blaming AI transition instead of company not doing well is a great excuse for job cuts, but I doubt the graduates would find those jobs even if per capita GDP grew 5% a year – I think cheap and crappy AI will replace expensive and potentially crappy human labor, namely the entry level jobs. Meanwhile, professionals with 10 years of experience will be expected to work on entry level wages, because the salary floor is no longer set by Bangalore but by AI bot.
Meanwhile, on WTF?!? side, Ford has patented a lipreading technology in order to follow the drivers’ behavior. Presumably to aid selecting the ads to be shown to the driver, or to sell to data brokers. I suspect one of the clients to be .gov. Better not even to subvocalize your dissident thoughts in these vehicles. The modern cars already store your text messages, apparently permanently, if you allow your car to access them. The lipreading technology is apparently based on echolocation, i.e., the car is scanning you to keep tabs on you. This is another huge check mark against the social contract as currently is.
Combined with effects on labor markets, I’d say that the surveillance AI is not your friend. And every AI is a surveillance AI. It is owned by the system, and it informs the system of your every interaction (read the fine print of any EULA involving AI products.) The adoption of AI is facilitated by the system that provides it favorable zoning with energy and big contracts (except when reality collides or the system clashes with itself). Commercial AI is probably favored by large sections of the system (of elites) because combined to robotics it is assumed to make proletariat superfluous, whereas surveillance AI is necessary to control the masses as the people are getting thinner and thinner slices of the (methinks shrinking) GDP pie, but AI adoption even within the system seems to currently have internal friction, as the AI sector clashes with copyright laws which especially are the basis of the entertainment sector of the system.
And to make this less gloomy, here is another clip of a tree with white flowers in April sunshine. A video instead of a GIF, because I don’t want to overtax the site on the top of my ongoing internet issues.
I think AI was probably involved in editing this video: the clip was stabilized in my mobile phone with some artefacts, and edited in and exported from Clipchamp. Yes, I am a hypocrite, but I think properly applied AI could be useful and fun.
The something wrong in my site seems to be my home network. Typing from coffee shop network seems to work fine, I’ll still need to troubleshoot my home network issue, but at least I can post during coffee shop opening hours. If I can’t get my issues sorted by the end of next week, I am seriously considering getting a competing internet service provider.
However, I wanted to post something nice, and here is a GIF of a tree near my home which has fluffy white flowers and I took some clips last week and on Good Friday. The last week’s clips were better (though still a bit wonky) and I used a couple those for a GIF.
Happy Easter to everyone!
I considered reusing the eggs picture from last year, or something new Easter themed, but maybe this will serve as a substitute? Longer posts once I have dealt with the internet issue. Apologies.
Just realized that today, March 20th is the spring equinox for 2026.
It feels like summer here in Berkeley, CA. Many trees are in nearly full greenery, jasmine flowers seem to be wilting already, wisterias have been going on a full tilt for at least a week or two (started some weeks back.) There has been more butterflies than just an occasional wintering monarch, I saw the other day a swallowtail and cabbage whites or their relatives have been flitting around. We have had a persistent heat wave with temperatures reaching (in Oakland International Airport) 81 to 84 degrees Fahrenheit or about 27 to 29 degrees Celsius.
Nevertheless, before I realized what day this was, returning from work, I had taken a photo of a crescent moon against a tree, the sun had set but the dusk was still bright at the western sky.
It looked prettier in nature. Or even on phone screen, before cropping and shrinking.
From now on until Autumn Equinox, the days will be longer than nights.
Still needing time to process a longer post, here is a flower GIF based on two of the clips I took 2026 March 08.
It was a tee shirt weather, many of the trees that had been about bare week or two ago had erupted into leaves. The little purple flowers seem to bloom year around, but I was surprised that some European-style fruit trees were still blooming.
A selection of clips showing types of views of different types of trees taken February 21st, 2026, in Berkeley, CA, silent and stabilized post filming (with the known artefacts).
The spring is bursting fully. On 22nd, it was tee shirt weather and small birds were very active and singing. Heard a hummingbird, saw and heard many small titmouse and sparrow sized birds, even a very small woodpecker, and a hawk and later a pair of probable hawks. And a seagull, which is sort of normal for a seaside city. I think the small birds have a mating season.
Crows, too, seem restless, but that might be them ending their winter. Back in Finland, the local crows (gray and black, not all black as in Berkeley) would form larger flocks and many migrated south during winter. The crows here seem to have some winter flocking behavior, even though they do not migrate.
The bird activity coincides with the swelling of buds and opening of young leaves in many deciduous trees. The earliest fruit trees which began to bloom weeks ago are finishing their season, as are faster magnolias. It is stressing to think of all the seasonal blooming which I am missing instead of photographing it. But there are new trees coming to bloom, though one magnolia that was among the first to start in my neighborhood is still going strong. Weird to think that spring began in February.
Dappled shadows on tree trunk, blooming fruit tree, redwood with creeping ivy.
Magnolia, February 21st, 2026 (not the one I have been following in my neighborhood)
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